And I think if you look for something the CBO may have gotten right in this report, it's that the premiums are actually going to come down in cost.
MICK MULVANEY: Every place else where the market is allowed to function, quality goes up and costs go down. He says greater competition would be good for insurance prices. That's one of the few things in this report that White House budget director Mick Mulvaney likes. After about 2020, though, forecasters are predicting somewhat lower premiums as more stripped-down policies are introduced. Premiums will be 15 to 20 percent higher than under Obamacare. HORSLEY: Initially, CBO predicts that we will see an increase in insurance premiums on the individual market. And finally, forecasters say we're likely to see a drop in the Medicaid rolls as the federal government starts to limit its funding for that program and states cut back on eligibility.ĬORNISH: Now, what about the cost of insurance itself? I mean, what could happen to premiums? Now, the government subsidies and the Republican plan are, on balance, less generous than in Obamacare, especially for the poor and older people. HORSLEY: Now, CBO also cautioned, though, that some people would stop buying insurance because they won't be able to afford it. But I do believe that if we're not going to force people to buy something they don't want to buy, they won't buy it. PAUL RYAN: They sort of overestimate the uninsured number, just like they overestimated who would be insured by Obamacare. The GOP plan eliminates the tax penalty for not having insurance, so some people who were buying reluctantly just to avoid that penalty would stop doing so. HORSLEY: Well, as you say, the forecast from the CBO says the GOP plan would insure a lot fewer people than Obamacare does - 14 million fewer next year, 24 million fewer by 2026. They're trying to predict what the GOP plan would cost the government and also how it would affect the insurance market, right? What are they saying? Hey there, Scott.ĬORNISH: So let's start with this analysis from the CBO. NPR's Scott Horsley joins me now in the studio. The report put out by the Congressional Budget Office says the number of uninsured would grow by about 24 million over the next decade. Congressional forecasters are warning that 14 million more Americans will be without health insurance next year if Republicans succeed in their plan to repeal and replace Obamacare.
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